Ahead of the Curve

Same Place, New Time!

Ahead of the Curve has moved to it's new time, 1PM – 2PM Central.. See you there.

Toni Turner joins Vince to explore trading psychology. Toni reveals the changes needed to be successful in this market. Euro has been driving the market, but now uncoupled. How can you use SPY? What are the macroeconomic factors impacting the market? Has the 200 day moving average been useful in the past? How does the index react to the moving average? Are there new factors to consider here? How do you manage the risks on these trades? What are the basics that are controlling the market here. What fundamentals should be a factor in your trades? What part does volume play here? Toni details here schedule of events and an overview of her recent books.

What factors does Toni use to get a feel for the market? All the indicators join to produce the market image. One or two divergences is OK, but too many produces dissonance. Toni likes candle patterns with moving averages. Does Toni use a core set of stocks to use? Water ETFs may be a good assets for long term growth. How do you set stops to minimize risks. Good traders have plans for all possible price moves. Toni projects her vision for the next couple of weeks. Are bonds appropriate here?

Something magic about Dow 10000?

David Buffalo returns to explain advanced trading techniques and analysis. Lots of volatility on low volume. Something magic about Dow 10000? David is seeing approaching divergence in momentum indicators. No real trend until traders back after Labor Day. David discusses FDX as a proxy for good news in the transport sector. Next up is XLF as an example of how to analyze price action to forecast future prices. Price is always your primary indicator. Anything else is a derivative of price. Do we fill the gap in SP500 from May? What is the macro trend you use here to trade? China and the impact from lack of US demand is discussed. Deflationary trigger? What happens with the euro and US exports will ripple back to China.

Vince explores past daily crashes. Can we have another day like that? David explains why. Multi day curbs to extinguish fears? Absolutes are unreal because never is a long time. Could change in capital gains rates cause people to take profits this fall? Vince mentions that Roth conversion may be appropriate for some investors because tax rates may increase. What about real estate here? As an inflation hedge? WWII generation liquidating assets which creates long term opportunity if bought at right price. Gold is demand story now that inflation not on horizon here. David not bearish yet. No major news from neural nets. Drug sector had a few hits. Market action causing David to utilize other time frames and asset classes to generate profits. FOREX is reviewed as a platform for trading profits.

Deflation starting to bite?

Bill Brinson and Oliver Juergens discuss the next week in the market. Frannie and Freddie news is affecting the market. Oliver dissects the recent rally and implications for the future. What seasonal factors are in force? Where do interest rates go short term? How long will the Fed keep real rates at zero? Lumber and home construction linkage are discussed. Other commodities have a deflationary spin as well. Is cash OK in a deflationary volatile environment? Is this the beginning of the long term interest rate increases? Does questionable assets at banks cause an increase in rates? How stressful was the European stress tests? They did not assume a sovereign debt default of bonds they hold! What about the problems with Japanese debt?

What tools does the Fed have to fight deflation? Oliver and Bill discuss a unique tool which the Fed may use. Does the fall have negative seasonal factors in general? Another toxic asset purchase program? Cap yield on bonds? European central banks have additional tools? Japan and Europe have same demographic trends. Oliver discusses opportunities in Turkey and India. All still linked to US economy in the short term. Bill examines the unemployment reports. Oliver discusses Euro dollar price action. Possible double top on DAX. Correlation between global stock markets is very high. Earnings from consumer stocks will have to come in to support the rally. Retailers not expecting big Christmas revenues. Early indicator is back to school sales. Decline in gold anticipating deflation?

Another Black Monday!

Vince and Bill Brinson start the week. What is driving the market here? The indicators do not look good for the long side. What about the latest earnings news? What is an option strategy to use here? Bill relates lessons from the past that may emerge here. Another Black Monday? What is safe in a deflationary scenario? Is this a sucker rally? New trend? When do the financials rally? Trading earnings for jobs? The worst of the downturn is now hitting the economy. 3M(MMM) is discussed in depth. What about the earnings from Transportation stocks? Will this encourage the bulls? Airlines reporting record profits. Does this impact the Dow Industrials? Seasonal factors in price of oil? Decade long cycles a factor? Tony Hayward and his future are discussed.

Unemployment and the trend are reviewed. With the consumer on the sidelines, it will be a difficult environment for job creation. Does the offshore oil industry suffer long term damage? Are there opportunities to the long side? Bill reflects on the technological changes and impact on the market. More data is available but you have to process it to provide information about an asset. Why have there been no commercial foreclosures? Have banks been raising additional capital to forestall collapse? Record FDIC closure rates YTD. Commercial notes not covered by Freddy Fanny government guarantee. The future of the Union is discussed with interesting insights into the strengths and enduring principals of its citizens.

Negative CPI by December?

Oliver Juergens joins Vince to explain changes to the PearlFisher portfolio. Also announcing a new indicator. Did the European stress tests achieve the purpose? What factors were important? Is the methodology meaningful? Do they simulate current flash crash type events? US and European markets are tightly coupled. However, there are differences in how they implement monetary policy. How high is too high for public sector employment? Oliver relates some research on price action similar to here. The gold position in the PearlFisher portfolio is still in force. Positions to the down side have been changed. What is the medium to long term forecast? Best timeframe to trade? What economic phase are we in? Negative CPI by end of year?

Oliver relates his research on an indicator which may be useful here. When was the last flash crash? What movie was released back then that may have been a contrary indicator? What is happening with the recent dollar rally? How major can the surprise price changes be? What is the professional put to call ratio saying? Are the hedge funds on vacation here? Problems in Hungarian debt? What impact does China have here? In the next decade? What about India? Has their growth been critical to the global economy? Is sugar a good investment here? Oliver points out that deflation will impact commodities. How much further before resistance? What is the dominant trend? What was the message from Bernanke? How does Oliver select which indicators are valid for the present term? Which ones are working now? How will volatility affect the model in the future? What to expect over next 12 months?

Why you need Harmonic Trading!

Scott Carney joins Vince to discuss, Harmonic Trading. There are two volumes available. Vince comments that Harmonic Trading patterns have performed well recently. It is a priced based model that has quantified patterns to project price movements. What is a good asset class for Harmonic trading. How does Fibonacci ratios work with the model? Are there other structural patterns used by the model? There are several patterns in the book that have been named. Scott uses Dow index to explain one of these patterns.

Vince announces PearlFisher portfolio changes, tune in tomorrow. Sometimes the market will not do what you predict from the model. Are there confirmation patterns that help improve the patterns? What time frames do you use to enter and exit? Manage entry as day trade, then manage trade to meet target. What are the settings used for RSI? Volume can be a useful indicator. What charting package works best with model? Does Elliot Wave support this model?

The Negative Decade!

Advanced trading is the topic today. Bill Brinson and Vince explains some of the techniques they use? Is buy and hold relevant today? Should we worry about deflation? Does that imply techniques that are different from the last decades? Explore all the investments available in the 401K! Great example of using a hedge to protect AAPL investment. Why does Bill use short term options? How has news been impacting the market lately? Has the last decade been the negative decade? An interesting look back at the red flags from conventional wisdom that the economy was in big trouble. Time to refi on mortgage?Discussion on laws and regulation and how they impact the market.

Dow 10,000 is a magnet. Is it psychological? Bill explains why multiple time frame analysis is critical to maintain context for your investments. Higher rates off the table for the Fed now? Will rates have to rise if confidence in banks decline? The economy is getting weaker. How long can it hold up? Can future generations grow and maintain the US economy? What is happening to bonds? Can you trade volatility? How does it affect option premiums? When should you buy options? What kind of returns are available? Good time for LEAPS? How can you use the leveraged ETFs to profit?

Is the Market using new math?

Vince welcomes Oliver for the weekly PearlFisher update. Oliver finds some seasonal factors which may be the reason for the price action today. Trend since April is down. Is this rally, a shift in trend? Which economic cycle are we? Late in the recovery from macro indicators? Vince notes the Euro US equity correlation has returned. Effect from China currency changes? Is negative news becoming good news? Were earnings expectations too high? More volatility ahead? How high can the yen go? Central banks behind this? Is the yen a proxy for the yuan? US equities stuck in trading range? Dead cat bounce this fall? Double dip in the spring? Another stimulus not politically doable? How can you safely generate income here? Will buy and hold work over the next decade? What are the crazy aspects of this market? Market sell-offs with high volume, market rallies are low volume. AAPL held by many ETFs. Disproportionate impact on market? Big earnings already baked in?

Commodities markets are focusing on precious metals. Copper inventories too high with low demand from China. Deflation is not the best scenario for gains in gold. China still in serious downtrend. A couple of up days are not a trend! Did they get all they need last year? China just surpassed US for total energy consumed. Backlash to austerity measures in Europe are increasing. Market is sandwiched between top and flash crash bottom. What are the fundamentals saying? Central banks to turn up the printing presses? How bad is the housing market? Bigger implications than high unemployment? Housing recession to last longer than normal downturn? Europe to swing left politically? Important macro economic news and earnings releases over the next week.

What is the PBGC and why you should care!

Bill Brinson joins Vince to talk markets and pensions. The health of the PBGC is discussed. Essentially guarantees a minimum payment. Has PBGC gone broke? Bill explains AARP and its business model are discussed. Source Capital(SOR) is explained by Bill. It is a Closed End Trust that focuses on mid-cap value. Why does it trade at a discount? How much is the dividend? How large is the volume? What can you use to hedge the stock? Good for long term income. Fund has access to private placement deals and other preferred share investments. How did the Fed announcement play in Hawaii? Is anyone listening to the Fed? What about the action on the Dow Transport index?

Bill and Vince return to discuss gold. What impact will the euro have on gold? NEM is given the once over. How high can the euro go? Is China having an effect on the yen? Can the EU get their fiscal house in order? How does the Swiss National Bank act here? What would the exporters prefer? Will the EU stress tests restore confidence? Does the EU survive? Is the US in better shape? What are home sales saying about the recovery? Is a tax cut the solution? Potential impact from the Financial Services reform effort? Watch for earnings! Especially the financials!

Ahead of the Curve

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Same Place, New Time!

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