Vince welcomes Oliver for the weekly PearlFisher update. Oliver finds some seasonal factors which may be the reason for the price action today. Trend since April is down. Is this rally, a shift in trend? Which economic cycle are we? Late in the recovery from macro indicators? Vince notes the Euro US equity correlation has returned. Effect from China currency changes? Is negative news becoming good news? Were earnings expectations too high? More volatility ahead? How high can the yen go? Central banks behind this? Is the yen a proxy for the yuan? US equities stuck in trading range? Dead cat bounce this fall? Double dip in the spring? Another stimulus not politically doable? How can you safely generate income here? Will buy and hold work over the next decade? What are the crazy aspects of this market? Market sell-offs with high volume, market rallies are low volume. AAPL held by many ETFs. Disproportionate impact on market? Big earnings already baked in?
Commodities markets are focusing on precious metals. Copper inventories too high with low demand from China. Deflation is not the best scenario for gains in gold. China still in serious downtrend. A couple of up days are not a trend! Did they get all they need last year? China just surpassed US for total energy consumed. Backlash to austerity measures in Europe are increasing. Market is sandwiched between top and flash crash bottom. What are the fundamentals saying? Central banks to turn up the printing presses? How bad is the housing market? Bigger implications than high unemployment? Housing recession to last longer than normal downturn? Europe to swing left politically? Important macro economic news and earnings releases over the next week.
